风险管理

  1. 识别风险：风险分类、风险登记册
  2. 风险分析：定性风险分析、风险概率和影响矩阵；概率（Probability）、影响（Impact）、紧急度（Urgent）、发生频率（Frequency）
  3. 风险应对：回避（Avoid）、减轻（Mitigate）、转移（Transfer）、接受（Accept）
  4. 监控：迭代规划会、梳理会、每日站会、评审会、回顾会
  5. 工具：刺探、风险燃尽图、基于风险调整的产品待办事项

公式：

  • 风险严重度 severity
  • 风险敞口 Exposure
  • 预期货币价值 EMV Expected Monetary Value

Risk severity or risk exposure or EMV = Risk Impact x Risk Probability
风险严重度/风险敞口/EMV = 影响 x 概率

识别风险 (并记录于风险登记册Risk Register)

Risk id Risk description Raised on Raised by Status Potential responses Risk probability(0 - 1) Risk impact(0 - 1) Risk severity =probability x impact
1 UX designer not availableto design the front end ofthe portal June 10, 2016 Bill Open Open Look for a contractingoption. 0.8 0.5 0.04
2 Dependency on vendorsoftware to performuser authentication andauthorization June 10, 2016 Barry Open Consider open sourcedversion that does notrequire any vendor lock-in. 0.5 0.25 0.125
3 Library users are notaccustomed to using acomputer June 11, 2016 Bill Open Plan for some training andawareness sessions. 0.8 0.75 0.6
4 Web portal registration istime consuming June 18, 2016 Tom Open Reuse an existing domain ifone exists. 0.25 0.5 0.125
5 License cost and lifetimemaintenance cost ofWebsphere server is high June 20, 2016 Barry Open Consider cheaperapplication server software. 0.9 0.75 0.675
6 Booksellers and publishershave their own systems towhich interfacing is verycomplex June 28, 2016 Tom Open Perform some duediligence on the technicalrequirements. 0.25 0.1 0.025
7 Existing hardware hasreached end of life July 5, 2016 Barry Open 1) Consider an upgrade,need cost estimate.2) Check feasibility ofcloud-based solution(AWS / Azure). 0.9 0.5 0.45
8 Javascript and CSS skillsare not available July 15, 2016 Mary Open Conduct technical trainingsand hire an experiencedcontractor. Do a couple ofPOC’s to gain experienceand confidence. 0.8 0.5 0.4
9 Integration challengeswith student database onactive directory July 25, 2016 Mary Open Perform some duediligence on the technicalrequirements. 0.6 0.25 0.125
10 Attrition of a seniordeveloper who lookedafter the softwareconfiguration August 18,2016 Barry Open Continue with the crosstraining plan and look outfor a replacement. 0.5 0.25 0.125

风险概率与影响矩阵 Risk Impact assessment matrix

Impact/Risk type Very low Low Moderate High Very high

0.05 0.1 0.25 0.5 0.75
Schedule risk Negligiblescheduledeviation 1-5% scheduledeviation 6-10% scheduledeviation 10-20% Schedule deviation More than20% scheduledeviation
Cost risk Negligiblecost deviation 1-10% costdeviation 10-15% costdeviation 15-25% costdeviation More than 25%cost deviation
Customer Dissatisfaction CSAT score of9/10 or 10/10 CSAT score of7/10 or 8/10 CSAT score of5/10 or 6/10 CSAT score of4/10 CSAT scorebelow 4/10
Motivation leveland team bonding Minordisagreementsthat areself-resolved Level 1, 2conflicts thatneeds someintervention Repeatedescalations,level 3 conflictsthat needperiodicinterventions Level 4conflicts anddiscord withinthe team High levelsof attrition,significant loss ofproductivity