1、基本介绍

（1）Principles、Assumptions

  • Principles
    • Prices are the result of the interaction of supply and demand in the real time.
    • The greater the volume of trades, the more impact that market participants will have on price.
    • Trades determine volume and price.

  • Assumptions

    • Market prices reflect both rational and irrational investor behavior.
    • Market trends and patterns repeat themselves and are somewhat predictable.
    • Efficient markets hypothesis dose not hold.
      • 有效市场假说（EMH）不成立
      • 有效市场假说：市场根据信息的类别分为三类：
        • 弱式有效市场：股票价格充分反映了历史信息
          • 股票价格已经反映在历史信息里了，再依据历史信息做技术分析不能得到超额收益
        • 半强式有效市场：股票价格充分反映了历史信息、公开信息（如上市公司财报）
          • 基于已有信息也不再能获得超额收益
        • 强式有效市场：股票价格充分反映了历史信息、公开信息、私募信息
          • 基于已有信息也不再能获得超额收益
        • 最弱的有效市场都不能基于技术分析获得超额收益了，因此，做技术分析时，是认为在有效市场假说不成立的情况下。
        • 一般认为美国市场为弱式有效市场，中国市场则连弱式有效市场都没达到。

          （2）技术分析和基本面分析的不同

  • Differences among technicians、 and Efficient market followers

  • Fundamental analysis（fundamentalists）of a firm seeks to determine the underlying long-term (intrinsic) value of an asset by using the financial statements and other information.
  • While technical analysis uses more concrete data, primarily price and volume data, and seek to project the level at which a financial instrument will trade.
  • Fundamentalists believe that prices react quickly to changing stock values, while technicians believe that the reaction is slow.

  • Technicians look for changes in supply and demand, while fundamentalists look for changes in value.

    （3）技术分析的优缺点

  • Advantages

    • Actual price and volume data is easy to access.
    • Technical analysis is objective (although require subjective judgment), while much of the data used in fundamental analysis is subject to assumptions or restatements.
    • Fundamental analysis may have the risk of financial statement fraud, while technical analysis doesn’t have.（基本面分析基于财务报表，可能存在造假）
    • It can be applied to the prices of assets that do not produce future cash flows, such as commodities（大宗商品）.（有些产品不会产生未来现金流，而基本面分析需要依靠 CF）

  • Disadvantages

    • In markets that are subject to large outside manipulation, the application of technical analysis is limited.
    • Technical analysis is also limited in illiquid markets, where even modestly sized trades can have an inordinate impact on prices.

      2、Charts of price and volume

  • Charts of price and volume are used to analyze asset prices and overall market movement.

    • Horizontal axis：usually time interval（daily，weekly，monthly）
    • Vertical axis：Price

      （1）Line Charts

  • Line Charts are a simple graphic display of price trends over time. Line charts are typically drawn with closing prices as the data points.

    • 使用的是一天的收盘价（忽略了开盘价）

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（2）Bar charts

  • Bar charts have four bits of data in each entry：the high and low price encountered during the time interval plus the opening and closing prices.
    • 包含了当天的最高、最低、开盘、收盘价

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（3）Candlestick charts（K 线图）

  • Candlestick charts provides four prices per data point entry：the opening and closing prices and the high and low prices during the period.
    • Box is clear（白色）：closing price > opening price（P 上涨）
    • Box is filled（黑色）：closing price < opening price（P 下跌）
  • 中国的红色代表涨、绿色代表跌，国外的相反。

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（4）Point and figure charts（了解）

  • Point and figure charts are helpful in identifying changes in the direction of price movements.
    • Starting from opening price.
    • X：increase of one box size
    • O：indicate a decrease
    • Analyst will begin the next column when the price changes in the opposite direction by at least the reversal size（3 times the box size）

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3、Relative strength analysis

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（1）Trend、Trend line

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（2）Support level、Resistance level

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4、Common chart patterns

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5、Technical Analysis Indicators

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6、Moving Average

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7、Bollinger bands

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8、各个指标、理论

（1）ROC（Rate of Change Oscillator）

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（2）RSI（Relative Strength Index）

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（3）Stochastic Oscillator

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（4）MACD（Moving Average Convergence/Divergence）

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（5）Put/call ratio

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（6）VIX（Volatility index）

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（7）Margin debt

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（8）Short interest ratio

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（9）TRIN（Arms index or Short-term trading index）

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（10）Mutual fund cash position

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（11）New equity issuance

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（12）Cycle theory

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（13）Elliott wave theory

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（14）Intermarket analysis

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