2022-02-14

不要降低标准

在各类人际关系中，你会遇到这样的时刻，必须要决定彼此是否合适对方——这在私人生活中非常普遍，对任何拥有高标准的机构也如此。在桥水，我们很清楚不能在文化的根基上妥协。因此，如果一个人无法在一定时间内达到我们在追求卓越、极度求真、极度透明等方面的高标准，那么就必须离开。
You reach a point in all relationships when you must decide whether you are meant for each other—that’s common in private life and at any organization that holds very high standards. At Bridgewater, we know that we cannot compromise on the fundamentals of our culture, so if a person cannot operate within our requirements of excellence through radical truth and transparency in an acceptable time frame, he or she must leave.

2022-02-13

不要为你自己或他人的错误而懊恼，要珍爱它

人们通常会为自己犯错感到沮丧，这是因为他们目光短浅，只看到了不良的结果，而没有看到错误实际上也是进步过程中的有机组成部分。我以前有一位滑雪教练，他也指导过迈克尔·乔丹，那位有史以来最伟大的篮球队员。他告诉我，乔丹简直沉醉在自己的错误中，把每次错误都当成改进的机会。乔丹明白一个道理，错误就像是玩小拼图游戏，每完成一个，就会得到一个宝贝。当你每犯一个错误并从中吸取教训，就会使你在未来免于再犯几千个类似的错误。
People typically feel bad about their mistakes because they think in a shortsighted way about the bad outcome and not about the evolutionary process of which mistakes are an integral part. Every mistake that you make and learn from will save you from thousands of similar mistakes in the future. I once had a ski instructor who had also given lessons to Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player of all time. Jordan, he told me, reveled in his mistakes, seeing each of them as an opportunity to improve. He understood that mistakes are like those little puzzles that, when you solve them, give you a gem.

2022-02-12

关注任务与关注目标

一些人关注日常任务，而另一些人关注目标及其实现途径。我发现这两者之间的差异与直觉型和感知型之间的差异很像。关注目标、”设想“能力强的人能看到逐渐变化的大局，也更有可能做出有意义的改变，以及预估未来的事件。这些目标导向的人能从日常任务中跳出来，思考当前在做什么、做得如何。他们最适合创造新事物（新组织、新项目等），管理频繁变化的组织。因为视野宽阔、通观全局，所以他们通常会成为最能勾画蓝图的领导者。
而关注日常任务的人更善于管理没什么变化、按部就班的事物。任务导向的人倾向于参考已经存在的东西，做出渐进的改变。他们不会快速地偏离现状，在突发事件面前更可能措手不及。另一方面，他们通常非常可靠。虽然看起来他们的关注点比宏观思考者更狭隘，但他们的角色同样重要。如果我不与善于处理细节的人合作，我肯定出不了《原则》这本书，也实现不了任何有价值的东西。
Some people are focused on daily tasks while others are focused on their goals and how to achieve them. I’ve found these differences to be quite similar to the differences between people who are intuitive vs. sensing. Those who tend to focus on goals and “visualize” best can see the big pictures over time and are also more likely to make meaningful changes and anticipate future events. These goal-oriented people can step back from the day-to-day and reflect on what and how they’re doing. They are the most suitable for creating new things (organizations, projects, etc.) and managing organizations that have lots of change. They typically make the most visionary leaders because of their ability to take a broad view and see the whole picture.
In contrast, those who tend to focus on daily tasks are better at managing things that don’t change much or that require processes to be completed reliably. Task-oriented people tend to make incremental changes that reference what already exists. They are slower to depart from the status quo and more likely to be blindsided by sudden events. On the other hand, they’re typically more reliable. Although it may seem that their focus is narrower than higher-level thinkers, the roles they play are no less critical. I would never have gotten this book out or accomplished hardly anything else worthwhile if I didn’t work with people who are wonderful at taking care of details.

2022-02-11

要明白，规划一个好方案不一定需要很多时间

草拟和完善一个方案，可以用短短几个小时，也可以用几天甚至几周，但这个过程是必不可少的，因为它确保你将做的事是有效的。太多人犯的错误是，一心想着执行，所以几乎不花时间来规划。谨记：规划先于行动！
A plan can be sketched out and refined in just hours or spread out over days or weeks. But the process is essential because it determines what you will have to do to be effective. Too many people make the mistake of spending virtually no time on designing because they are preoccupied with execution. Remember: Designing precedes doing!

2022-02-10

观察你犯错误的规律，并识别你通常在五步流程中的哪一步上做得不好

观察你犯错误的规律，并识别你通常在五步流程中的哪一步上做得不好。同时也参考其他人的意见，因为所有人都无法绝对客观地看待自己。
Look at the patterns of your mistakes and identify at which step in the 5-Step Process you typically fail.
Ask others for their input too, as nobody can be fully objective about themselves.

国家之间的交易和各国国内交易存在很大不同

各国政府想要控制本国境内使用的货币，因为通过增加和减少货币供给、借贷成本和货币价值，各国政府能拥有巨大的影响力。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东购买我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
Governments want to control the money that is used within their borders because by increasing and decreasing its supply, its cost of borrowing, and its value the government has enormous power.

2022-02-09

建立清晰的衡量标准来确保你在严格执行方案

理想的做法是让其他人客观评估并报告你的进度。如果你未能实现目标，这就是另一个需要诊断和解决的问题。很多成功、有创造力的人士都不善于执行，而他们能成功是因为与高度可信赖的任务执行者建立起了互助互利的关系。
Ideally, someone other than you should be objectively measuring and reporting on your progress. If you’re not hitting your targets, that’s another problem that needs to be diagnosed and solved. There are many successful, creative people who aren’t good at execution. They succeed because they forge symbiotic relaitonships with highly realible task-doers.

2022-02-08

良好工作习惯的重要性常被大大低估

成功执行方案的人都拥有合理排序的应做事项列表，并确保每一项都井然有序地完成并标记。
People who push through successfully have to-do lists that are reasonably prioritized, and they make certain each item is ticked off in order.

2022-02-07

塑造者是能从构想一路走到实现的人

我在《原则》第一部分里就我称作“塑造者”的人写了很多。我所说的“塑造者”是指这样的人：能提出独特和有价值的愿景，并以美妙的方式实现愿景（通常是在他人的质疑之下）。塑造者既能看到全局，也能看到细节。在我看来，“塑造者”=“理想家”+“务实思考者”+“坚毅者”。
我发现塑造者通常有一些共同特征：极富好奇心；有把事情弄清楚的强烈冲动；近乎叛逆地独立思考；需要不同常规的宏大梦想，务实并坚毅地排除万难、实现目标；了解自己和其他人的长处，从而能协调团队来实现目标。也许更重要的是，他们能同时持有相互冲突的想法，并从不同角度来看待这些想法。他们通常喜欢和其他非常聪明的人一起探索事物，能在全局和细节之间自如地来回跳跃，并相信二者同样重要。
真正擅长这些思维方式从而能成为现实中的塑造者的人凤毛麟角。不过，他们如果不和天生具有其他特征的人合作也无法成功。后者的思维方式和行动也是不可或缺的。
在任何生命历程中，了解人的特性都是必要的第一步。你做什么并不重要，只要你做的符合自己的本性和人生理想。我和世界上一些最有钱、最有权势、最受尊崇的人打过交道，也和世界上一些最不起眼的角落里最穷、最弱势的人打过交道，我可以明确地说，除了最基本的层面，人的幸福程度与传统意义上成功的标志并无相关性。一个能从木工中获得内心最大满足的木匠，能轻松拥有和美国总统一样，甚至比美国总统更好的生活。
我希望你从《原则》中获得的最重要的认识是，每个人都有长处和短处，每个人在生活中都扮演着重要角色。大自然塑造万事万物皆有目的。你最需要的勇气不是用来驱使你胜过别人，而是不管其他人想让你如何，你始终坚持做最真实的自我。
I wrote a lot about the people I call “shapers” in the first part of this book. I use the word to mean someone who comes up with unique and valuable visions and builds them out beautifully, typically over the doubts of others. Shapers get both the big picture and the details right. To me, it seems that Shaper = Visionary + Practical Thinker + Determined.
I’ve found that shapers tend to share attributes such as intense curiosity and a compulsive need to make sense of things, independent thinking that verges on rebelliousness, a need to dream big and unconventionally, a practicality and determination to push through all obstacles to achieve their goals, and a knowledge of their own and others’ weaknesses and strengths so they can orchestrate teams to achieve them. Perhaps even more importantly, they can hold conflicting thoughts simultaneously and look at them from different angles. They typically love to knock things around with other really smart people and can easily navigate back and forth between the big picture and the granular details, counting both as equally important.
People wired with enough of these ways of thinking that they can operate in the world as shapers are very rare. But they could never succeed without working with others who are more naturally suited for other things and whose ways of thinking and acting are also essential.
Knowing how one is wired is a necessary first step on any life journey. It doesn’t matter what you do with your life, as long as you are doing what is consistent with your nature and your aspirations. Having spent time with some of the richest, most powerful, most admired people in the world, as well as some of the poorest, most disadvantaged people in the most obscure corners of the globe, I can assure you that, beyond a basic level, there is no correlation between happiness levels and conventional markers of success. A carpenter who derives his deepest satisfaction from working with wood can easily have a life as good or better than the president of the United States. If you’ve learned anything from Principles
I hope it’s that everyone has strengths and weaknesses, and everyone has an important role to play in life. Nature made everything and everyone for a purpose. The courage that’s needed the most isn’t the kind that drives you to prevail over others, but the kind that allows you to be true to your truest self, no matter what other people want you to be.

2022-02-06

把你的方案设想成一个电影剧本，然后设想谁在什么时间应该做什么

先草拟一个大致的计划（如“招聘好的人才”），然后改进。你应当从总体框架出发，一步步深化到具体任务和预计的时间线（如“在未来两周里选好能找到人才的猎头”）。无疑，在你推进的过程中，成本、时间、人员等方面的现实问题都会浮现，这将促使你进一步完善方案，直到机器里的所有齿轮都啮合良好、流畅运转。
Sketch out the plan broadly at first (e.g., “hire great people”) and then refine it. You should go from the big picture and drill down to specific tasks and estimated time lines (e.g., “In the next two weeks, choose the headhunters who will find those great people”). The real-world issues of costs, time, and personnel will undoubtedly sur-face as you do this, and that will lead you to further refine your design until all the gears in the machine are meshing smoothly.

2022-02-05

谨记实现你的目标通常有很多途径

你只需要找出一条有效途径。
You only need to find one that works.

2022-02-04

所有市场都是由4个决定因素驱动的

所有市场都是由以下4个决定因素驱动的：经济增长、通胀、风险溢价和折现率。
这是因为所有的投资都是以当前的一次性支付换取未来的支付。这些未来的现金支付取决于经济增长、通胀、风险溢价（即投资者相对于持有现金所愿承担的风险）和决定投资的当前价值（所谓的“现值”）的折现率。
这4个决定因素的变化驱动投资回报的变化。如果能知晓每个决定因素的未来形势，我就可以确定投资策略。这些认知告诉我如何把当前世界形势与当前市场形势联系起来，反之亦然。这些认知还告诉我如何平衡我的投资，使我的投资组合不受任何环境的影响，从而实现良好的分散化投资。
政府通过财政和货币政策影响这些因素。因此，政府目标与当前形势的相互作用成为周期的驱动因素。例如，如果经济增速过慢和通胀过低，央行就会创造更多的货币和信贷，由此产生购买力，拉动经济增长，通胀也会在一段时间后出现上升。如果央行限制货币和信贷供应，相反的情况就会发生：经济和通胀双双放缓。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
All markets are primarily driven by just four determinants: growth, inflation, risk premiums, and discount rates.
That is because all investments are exchanges of lump-sum payments today for future payments. What these future cash payments will be is determined by growth and inflation, what risk investors are willing to take in investing in them as compared to having cash in hand is the risk premium, and what they are worth today, which is called their “present value,” is determined by the discount rate.
How these four determinants change drives how investment returns change. Tell me what each of these determinants is going to do and I can tell you what the investments are going to do. Knowing this tells me how to connect what is happening in the world to what is happening in the markets and vice versa. It also shows me how to balance my investments so that my portfolio doesn’t have any bias to any environment, which is what produces good diversification.
Governments influence these factors through their fiscal and monetary policies. As a result, interactions between what governments want to happen and what is actually happening are what drive the cycles.

把你的问题看作一部机器产生的一系列结果

通过俯视你的机器并思考如何改变这部机器，以创造更好的结果来从事更高层次的思考。
Practice higher-level thinking by looking down on your machine and thinking about how it can be changed to produce better outcomes.

2022-01-30

先把问题是什么弄明白，再决定怎么做

一瞬间就确定一个棘手的问题并提出解决方案，是一种常见的错误。战略思考既需要诊断也需要规划。一次良好的诊断通常需要15—60分钟，取决于诊断的效率和问题的复杂程度。你需要与合适的人交流，一起分析证据，以确定根本原因。像原则一样，根本原因也不断在看似不同的情境中重现，找到并处理根本原因也会不断带来回报。
It is a common mistake to move in a nanosecond from identifying a tough problem to proposing a solution for it. Strategic thinking requires both diagnosis and design. A good diagnosis typically takes between fifteen minutes and an hour, depending on how well it’s done and how complex the issue is. It involves speaking with the relevant people and looking at the evidence together to determine the root causes. Like principles, root causes manifest themselves over and over again in seemingly different situations. Finding them and dealing with them pays dividends again and again.

2022-01-29

不要把问题的某个原因误以为问题本身

“我无法得到充足的睡眠”不是一个问题，而是一个问题的潜在原因（或者可能是问题的结果）。为了清晰地思考，你应该先确认不良的结果是什么，比如“我的工作表现很差劲”。这个问题也许是睡眠不足造成的，也许是别的因素造成的，但为了确定原因，你必须清楚地知道问题究竟是什么。
I can’t get enough sleep is not a problem; it is a potential cause (or perhaps the result) of a problem. To clarify your thinking, try to identify the bad outcome first; e.g., “I am performing poorly in my job.” Not sleeping enough may be the cause of that problem, or the cause may be something else–but in order to determine that, you need to know exactly what the problem is.

2022-01-28

通缩性萧条是债务人不具备偿债所需的资金而导致的债务危机

通缩性萧条是债务人不具备偿债所需的资金而导致的债务危机。
为了应对这一危机，政府不可避免地采取印钞、债务重组和政府支出计划等措施。这些措施会增加货币和信贷供应，并降低其价值。唯一的问题是政府官员需要花多长时间才会采取这些行动。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
Deflationary depressions are debt crises caused by there not being enough money in the hands of debtors to service their debts.
They inevitably lead to the printing of money, debt restructurings, and government spending programs that increase the supply of, and reduce the value of, money and credit. The only question is how long it takes for government officials to make this move.

诊断问题，探究根源

遇到问题时，你的目标是剖析问题的根源——具体到哪些人、哪些设计导致了问题的产生，并探究人和设计造成的问题是否带有一定的规律性。导致无法准确诊断问题的最常见原因有哪些？
根据我的发现，人们最常犯的错误就是把遇到的问题当成一时的差错，而没有借机对机器的运转进行诊断，以便实施改进。他们即时动手解决问题，却忽视了问题的根源，导致失败频频发生。全面、准确的诊断尽管要耗时多一些，但对未来大有益处。
人们最常犯的第二个错误是诊断时不点明个人。如果不把问题与造成问题的个人挂钩，不探究他们失败的具体原因，就不会促进个人和机器做出改进。
第三个最常见的错误是未能把这次诊断中吸取的教训与之前的教训联系起来。要确认某个问题（“哈里很粗心”）的根源是某种规律使然（“哈里总是很粗心”），还是相反（“这样粗心真不像哈里”）。
When you encounter problems, your objective is to specifically identify the root causes of those problems—the specific people or designs that caused them—and to see if these people or designs have a pattern of causing problems. What are the most common reasons for failing to diagnose well?
The most common mistake I see people make is dealing with their problems as one-offs rather than using them to diagnose how their machine is working so that they can improve it. They move on to fix problems without getting at their root causes, which is a recipe for continued failure. A thorough and accurate diagnosis, while more time-consuming, will pay huge dividends in the future.
The second most common mistake people make is to depersonalize the diagnosis. Not connecting problems to the people who failed and not examining what it is about them that caused the failure will not lead to improvements of the individuals or the machines.
The third biggest reason for failure is to not connect what one is learning in one diagnosis to what was learned in prior ones. It is important to determine whether the root cause of a particular problem (“Harry was careless”) is part of a larger pattern (“Harry is often careless”) or not (“It’s unlike Harry to be careless”).

2022-01-27

找出一个问题之后不要容忍问题

容忍问题和找不到问题后果是一样的。
不管你出于什么原因容忍问题，如你认为问题无法解决、你不怎么在乎问题是否解决、你无法付出足够的精力解决问题，如你没有战胜问题的意志，你就处于毫无希望的境地。你必须养成一种对任何性质的问题都绝不容忍的习惯，无论其是重是轻。
Tolerating a problem has the same consequences as failing to identify it.
Whether you tolerate it because you believe it cannot be solved, because you don’t care enough to solve it, or because you can’t muster enough of whatever it takes to solve it, if you don’t have the will to succeed, then your situation is hopeless. You need to develop a fierce intolerance of badness of any kind, regardless of its severity.

2022-01-26

要精准地找到问题所在

你的时间和精力有限，确保你正将其用于探究大问题，即一旦解决便能带来最大回报的问题。但同时，留出足够多的时间来探究小问题，以确保这些小问题不是更大问题的征兆。
You only have so much time and energy; make sure you are investing them in exploring the problems that, if fixed, will yield you the biggest results. But at the same time, make sure you spend enough time with the small problems to make sure they’re not symptoms of larger ones.

2022-01-25

要精准地找到问题所在

你应该找准问题，因为不同的问题有不同的解决方案。
如果问题的原因是技能不足，也许就需要额外培训；如果问题的原因是某种固有的弱点，你也许需要寻求他人的帮助，或者改变你扮演的角色。比如，如果你不擅长会计事务，就聘请一位会计。如果问题是源自他人的弱点，那么必要时就用擅长的人替换他。事情就是这样。
You need to be precise, because different problems have different solutions.
If a problem is due to inadequate skill, additional training may be called for; if it arises from an innate weakness, you may need to seek assistance from someone else or change the role you play. In other words, if you’re bad at accounting, hire an accountant. If a problem stems from someone else’s weaknesses, replace them with someone who is strong where it’s needed. That’s just the way it is.

2022-01-24

把令人痛苦的问题视为考验你的潜在进步机会

尽管你一开始不会这么觉得，但你遇到的每个问题其实都是一个机会。因此，你必须把问题摆上桌面。
大多数人不喜欢这么做（尤其是当问题会暴露他们或他们所在意的人的缺点时），但成功人士知道自己必须这么做。
Though it won’t feel that way at first, each and every problem you encounter is an opportunity; for that reason, it is essential that you bring them to the surface.
Most people don’t like to do this, especially if it exposes their own weaknesses or the weaknesses of someone they care about, but successful people know they have to.

2022-01-23

知道如何对待挫折和知道如何前进一样重要

有时你知道你正在不可避免地走向一场大挫折。生活中总会遇到这样的挑战，有的挑战在当时看来似乎具有毁灭性。在逆境中，你的目标可能是守住自己已有的，尽量减少损失，或者直面不可挽回的损失。你的任务是始终做出尽可能好的选择，并清楚如果这么做，你将得到回报。
Sometimes you know that you are going over a waterfall and there is no way to avoid it. Life will throw you such challenges, some of which will seem devastating at the time. In bad times, your goal might be to keep what you have, to minimize your rate of loss, or simply to deal with a loss that is irrevocable. Your mission is to always make the best possible choices, knowing that you will be rewarded if you do.

2022-01-22

每个人都需要知道自己的位置，一个人的权力决定了他的位置

如果大家对谁拥有什么权力有疑问，这将引发一场冲突来解决这个问题。在理想的情况下，热战不会发生，但当问题不清晰且很重要，通常无法和平地解决。随着时间的推移，谁拥有什么权力会变得清晰起来，所以如果权力较小的人知道自己权力较小，他们就应该进入从属地位，这样权力和地位可以在不产生冲突的情况下发生变化。如果他们拒绝进入从属地位，冲突会发生，力量较弱的人也会经历痛苦的失败。这就是为什么权力交接会如此痛苦的原因。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
If there are questions about who has what power, there will be a conflict to resolve that. Ideally that happens without a hot war, but when it is not clear and it is important it generally isn’t resolved peacefully. Over time evolution will make it clear who has what power, so if those with less power know that they have less power, they should slip into the subordinate position so the power and position change takes place without fighting. If they refuse to slip into the subordinate position, there will be fighting and the painful defeat of the weaker power. That is what makes transitions of power so painful.

不要把成功的装饰误认为成功本身

向往成就是很重要的，但有的人痴迷于一双1200美元的鞋或一辆时髦的汽车，这样的人很少会感到快乐，因为他们不知道自己真正想要的是什么，因而也不知道什么能满足他们。
Achievement orientation is important, but people who obsess over a $1,200 pair of shoes or a fancy car are very rarely happy because they don’t know what it is that they really want and hence what will satisfy them.

2022-01-21

排列优先顺序

生活就像一顿自助大餐，有着各种你意想不到的美食。选择一个目标通常意味着放弃你想要的一些东西，以获得另一些你更想要或更需要的东西。
有的人还没有起步，就在这一步失败了。他们害怕为了更好的选择而放弃好的选择，试图同时追求太多目标，最终却几乎一个都实现不了。不要因为选择太多而感到害怕或无所适从。除了能让自己快乐的必需品，你还可以拥有很多东西。做出自己的选择并坚持下去。
Life is like a giant smorgasbord with more delicious alternatives than you can ever hope to taste. Choosing a goal often means rejecting some things you want in order to get other things that you want or need even more.
Some people fail at this point, before they’ve even started. Afraid to reject a good alternative for a better one, they try to pursue too many goals at once, achieving few or none of them. Don’t get discouraged and don’t let yourself be paralyzed by all the choices. You can have much more than what you need to be happy. Make your choice and get on with it.

2022-01-20

有明确的目标。

2022-01-19

不进化，就死亡

这个进化循环不仅适用于人，也适用于国家、企业、经济体，以及一切事物。整体会自动地自我修正，个体却不一定。例如，假如市场供给过多、浪费过多的话，价格就会下跌，企业就会破产，产能就会降低，直至供给下降到与需求相适应的水平，那时进化循环又会从相反的方向重新开始。与此类似，假如一个经济体的情况足够糟，经济管理者就会做出必需的政治改革和政策调整，否则他们将无法留任，只能把位子让出来。这些循环是连续的、以符合逻辑的方式推进的，而且有自我强化倾向。
关键在于经历失败、学习和快速的改进。
This evolutionary cycle is not just for people but for countries, companies, economies—for everything. And it is naturally self-correcting as a whole, though not necessarily for its parts. For example, if there is too much supply and waste in a market, prices will go down, companies will go out of business, and capacity will be reduced until the supply falls in line with the demand, at which time the cycle will start to move in the opposite direction. Similarly, if an economy turns bad enough, those responsible for running it will make the political and policy changes that are needed—or they will not survive, making room for their replacements to come along. These cycles are continuous and play out in logical ways—and they tend to be self-reinforcing.
The key is to fail, learn, and improve quickly.

2022-01-18

将放贷和支出用于广泛提高生产率、使投资回报超过借贷成本的项目，就可以提高生活水平，同时偿还债务。

历史表明，如果将放贷和支出用于广泛提高生产率、使投资回报超过借贷成本的项目，就可以提高生活水平，同时偿还债务。这样的政策就是好政策。
如果放贷金额不足以偿付债务，那么央行完全可以印钞并成为最后贷款人，只要确保这些资金的投资回报率较高，足以偿还债务就行了。历史和逻辑都表明，有效地投资于各级教育（包括职业培训）、基础设施与能够提高生产率的发明和研究，都会很有成效。例如，尽管从投资到见效所用的时间相当长，但大规模的教育计划和基础设施建设计划几乎总能带来充足的回报（如中国的唐朝以及许多其他朝代、罗马帝国、伊斯兰教的伍麦叶哈里发帝国、印度的莫卧儿帝国、日本的明治维新，以及过去几十年中国的教育发展规划）。
事实上，教育与基础设施的改善（即使靠的是债务融资）是几乎所有国家崛起背后的重要因素。这些方面的投资和质量下滑，也几乎总是国家衰落背后的原因。如果做得好，这些干预措施就可以充分抵消典型有害组合造成的影响。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
History shows that lending and spending on items that produce broad-based productivity gains and returns on investment that exceed the borrowing costs result in living standards rising with debts being paid off, so these are good policies.
If the amount of money being lent to finance the debt is inadequate, it is perfectly fine for the central bank to print the money and be the lender of last resort as long as the money is invested to have a return that is large enough to service the debt. History shows and logic dictates that investing well in education at all levels (including job training), infrastructure, and research that yields productive discoveries works very well. For example, big education and infrastructure programs have paid off nearly all the time (e.g., in the Tang Dynasty and many other Chinese dynasties, in the Roman Empire, in the Umayyad Caliphate, in the Mughal Empire in India, in Japan’s Meiji Restoration, and in China’s educational development programs over the last couple of decades), though they have long lead times.
In fact, improvements in education and infrastructure, even those financed by debt, were essential ingredients behind the rises of virtually all empires, and declines in the quality of these investments were almost always ingredients behind empires’ declines. If done well, these interventions can more than counterbalance the classic toxic mix.

2022-01-17

成功的一个基本要素是，创造出来的债务和货币可用来提高生产率和带来良好的投资回报

成功的一个基本要素是，创造出来的债务和货币可用来提高生产率和带来良好的投资回报，而不是只给出债务和货币却不求提升生产率也没增多收入。
如果它们不能产生收益，这些钱就会贬值到政府或其他任何人不再有更多购买力的程度。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
An essential ingredient for success is that the debt and money that is created is used to produce productivity gains and favorable return on investment rather than just being given away without yielding productivity and income gains.
If it is given away without yielding these gains the money will be devalued to the point that it won’t leave the government or anyone else with much buying power.

2022-01-16

一个社会要想拥有和平与繁荣，就需要拥有惠及大多数人的生产率

你认为我们今天具备这样的条件吗？
从历史经验看，要想提高生产率，造福于大多数人，破产的政府应该怎么做？历史表明，对足够部分的已有债务和非债务性义务进行重组和/或贬值，会起到很大的作用。这是在第五和第六阶段中的典型做法。一旦重组或贬值让债务负担降低（这通常是个很痛苦的过程），破产的政府就可以进行重建工作了。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
Do you think we have this today?
What does history show as the path that bankrupt governments can follow to raise productivity that benefits most people? It shows that restructuring and/or devaluing enough of the previously created debt and non-debt obligations helps a lot. That is classic in Stages 5 and 6. Once the restructuring or devaluation reduces the debt burdens, which is typically painful at the time, the reduced debt burdens allow for a rebuilding.

2022-01-15

奉行头脑极度开放

如果你知道自己有盲点，你就能找到一种办法去解决，但假如你不知道，你将持续不断地栽在相同的问题上。换言之，如果你能承认自己有盲点，并以开放的心态接受其他人可能在某件事上比你看得更准，以及他们试图指出的威胁或机会确实存在，那么你就更有可能做出良好的决策。
头脑极度开放的基础是一种真诚的担忧：你可能并未以最佳方式对你的选择进行判断。头脑极度开放是一种能力：能有效地探析各种不同的观点和不同的可能性，而不是让你的自我意识或思维盲点阻碍你。这需要你克服认为自己始终正确的执念，取而代之的是探求真相的愉悦。奉行头脑极度开放，会让你脱离“较低层次的你”的控制，并确保“较高层次的你”能发现和考量所有好的选择，做出最佳决策。如果你能获得这种能力（只要练习你就能），你将可以更有效地应对各种现实情况，大大改善自己的生活。
大多数人不明白什么是“头脑极度开放”，他们只是把头脑开放理解为“承认自己可能是错的”，但依然顽固地坚持自己的观点，不寻求理解其他观点背后的理由。
If you know that you are blind, you can figure out a way to see, whereas if you don’t know that you’re blind, you will continue to bump into your problems. In other words, if you can recognize that you have blind spots and open-mindedly consider the possibility that others might see something better than you—and that the threats and opportunities they are trying to point out really exist—you are more likely to make good decisions.
Radical open-mindedness is motivated by the genuine worry that you might not be seeing your choices optimally. It is the ability to effectively explore different points of view and different possibilities without letting your ego or your blind spots get in your way. It requires you to replace your attachment to always being right with the joy of learning what’s true. Radical open-mindedness allows you to escape from the control of your lower-level you and ensures your upper-level you sees and considers all the good choices and makes the best possible decisions. If you can acquire this ability—and with practice you can—you’ll be able to deal with your realities more effectively and radically improve your life.
Most people don’t understand what it means to be radically open-minded. They describe open-mindedness as being “open to being wrong,” but stubbornly cling to whatever opinion is in their head and fail to seek an understanding of the reasoning behind alternative points of view.

2022-01-14

规划做得再好，不执行也无济于事

你需要坚定地执行方案，而这需要自律。你应当时刻谨记任务及其意在实现的目标之间的联系。当你觉得看不清其间的联系时，就暂停一下，问问自己为什么做某事。找不到原因，你就肯定会迷失自己的目标。
You need to push through and that requires self-discipline to follow your script. It’s important to remember the connections between your tasks and the goals that they are meant to achieve. When you feel yourself losing sight of that, stop and ask yourself “why?” Lose sight of the why and you will surely lose sight of your goals.

2022-01-13

在取胜成为唯一重要之事的时候，不道德的争斗就会以强化自身的方式愈演愈烈

在取胜成为唯一重要之事的时候，不道德的争斗就会以强化自身的方式愈演愈烈。如每个人都为了自身的某种追求而不惜争斗，而且任何人都无法对任何事达成共识，体制就濒临内战/ 革命。
这种情况通常以两种形式发生。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
When winning becomes the only thing that matters, unethical fighting becomes progressively more forceful in self-reinforcing ways. When everyone has causes that they are fighting for and no one can agree on anything, the system is on the brink of civil war/revolution.
This typically happens in two ways.

2022-01-12

规则和法律只有在以下情况下才能起作用

规则和法律只有在以下情况下才能起作用：a) 它们非常清晰明确，b) 绝大多数人都非常重视将行为保持在规则和法律的范围内，且他们愿意为了保证规则和法律的有效运行而做出妥协。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
Rules and laws work only when a) they are crystal clear and b) most people value working within them enough that they are willing to compromise in order to make them work well.

如果你拥有灵活性并自我归责，那么几乎没有什么能阻止你成功

灵活性能让你接受现实（或者有见识的人）给你的教益。自我归责很重要，因为如果你真的相信未能实现某个目标是你自己的失败，那你就会把这一失败视为一个提示，它说明相对于你的任务而言，你的创造性、灵活性和坚定性还不够。
这样会大大提高你寻找方法的积极性。
Flexibility is what allows you to accept what reality (or knowledgeable people) teaches you; self-accountability is essential because if you really believe that failing to achieve a goal is your personal failure, you will see your failing to achieve it as indicative that you haven’t been creative or flexible or determined enough to do what it takes.
And you will be that much more motivated to find the way.

2022-01-11

世界秩序的许多重要方面正在迅速变化

世界秩序的许多重要方面正在迅速变化，虽然这些变化在我们一生至今从未发生过，但在历史上已曾多次发生。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的，你可以在京东预定我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》（点击“阅读原文”）。
The world order is now rapidly shifting in important ways that have never happened in our lifetimes but have happened many times before in history.

让了解一个人是怎样的人这一过程变得开放、有成长性且不断修整

开诚布公且明确地表述并分享你对一个人价值观、能力和技能的评价；倾听他们和其他人对你的描述如何反映；制订培训和测试计划；依据你观察到的表现来重估你的结论。要持续这么做。经过几个月的讨论和实地测试后，你和你的下属都将对他是什么样的人有很好的认识。时间长了，这种做法将帮助明确合适的岗位和适宜的训练，或者它将揭示出，这个人该让其另谋高就了。

Articulate your assessment of a person’s values, abilities, and skills up front and share it; listen to their and others’ responses to your description; organize a plan for training and testing; and reassess your conclusions based on the performance you observe. Do this on an ongoing basis. After several months of discussions and real-world tests, you and your report should both have a pretty good idea of what he or she is like. Over time this exercise will crystallize suitable roles and appropriate training or it will reveal that it’s time for the person to find a more appropriate job somewhere else.

2022-01-10

应对变化中的世界秩序

我很高兴我的新书《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》在今天终于出版了。几年前，我注意到我们正在经历的事情在我的有生之年里从未发生过，但在历史上曾多次出现。作为一名全球宏观经济投资者，我知道，如果没有深刻理解植根于历史模式中经济事件之间的因果关系，我将无法理解和判断当前正在发生的事情——更不用说未来可能会发生的事情了。所以我开始研究过去500年来各大帝国及其市场的兴衰，并把研究转化成这本书与大家分享。这本书提供了客观的衡量标准来展现历史上国家兴衰的驱动力。最重要的是，它解释了我们现在所处的历史位置以及我们将进入的阶段，描述了未来的可能性，并为判断即将发生的事情提供了实用的建议。
现在你可以在京东预定购买我的新书（点击“阅读原文”）。我希望你和我一样认为这个研究非常有帮助。
I am so glad to finally be releasing my new book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, today. A few years ago, I observed that we were experiencing things that had never happened in my lifetime but had happened many times before in history. As a global macro investor, I knew that I wouldn’t be able to understand and navigate what’s happening today – much less what may come – without having a deep understanding of the cause-effect relationships of economic events that are embedded in the patterns of history. So I undertook a study of the rise and fall of major empires and their markets over the last 500 years. I converted this study into a book to share what I learned. The book provides objective measures that show the forces that have driven the successes and failures of countries throughout history. Most importantly, it explains where we are and where we are going, describes that possibilities ahead, and provide practical advice for navigating what lies ahead.
My hope is that you’ll find the study as helpful as I have.

2022-01-09

接受结果

大部分时候，生活让你做出许多决定，给予你许多从错误中改过的机会，所以只要你处理得好，就能拥有美好的生活。当然，有时候某些我们无法控制的因素会严重影响我们的生活质量，例如人们生下来所处的环境、意外与疾病等。但大多数时候，只要以正确的方式应对，最差的情况也能被扭转。举个例子，我的一个朋友在跳进泳池时撞到了头，导致四肢瘫痪。但他却以很好的方式去面对自身的处境，变得和其他人一样快乐，这是因为快乐是可以通过多种途径实现的。
我的观点很简单：不管在生活中遇到什么情况，如果你能负起责任，进行良好的决策，而不是抱怨你无法控制的东西，你将更有可能取得成功并找到幸福。心理学家称之为拥有“内控点”，多项研究一致表明，拥有“内控点”的人比其他人表现更优秀。
所以，不要担心你是否喜欢当前的处境。生活根本不关心你喜欢什么。你需要根据自己的目标找到实现目标的方法，然后鼓起勇气坚持下去。
For the most part, life gives you so many decisions to make and so many opportunities to recover from your mistakes that, if you handle them well, you can have a terrific life. Of course, sometimes there are major influences on the quality of our lives that come from things beyond our control—the circumstances we are born into, accidents and illnesses, and so forth—but for the most part even the worst circumstances can be made better with the right approach. For example, a friend of mine dove into a swimming pool, hit his head, and became a quadriplegic. But he approached his situation well and became as happy as anybody else, because there are many paths to happiness.
My point is simply this: Whatever circumstances life brings you, you will be more likely to succeed and find happiness if you take responsibility for making your decisions well instead of complaining about things being beyond your control. Psychologists call this having an “internal locus of control,” and studies consistently show that people who have it outperform those who don’t.
So don’t worry about whether you like your situation or not. Life doesn’t give a damn about what you like. It’s up to you to connect what you want with what you need to do to get it and then find the courage to carry it through.

2022-01-08

谨记伟大的期望创造伟大的能力

如果你把目标只限定为明知自己能实现的东西，你的标准就设得太低了。
If you limit your goals to what you know you can achieve, you are setting the bar way too low.

2022-01-07

痛苦+反思=进步

人避免不了痛苦，尤其是在追求雄心勃勃的目标时。不管你相信与否，如果以正确的态度对待痛苦，感到痛苦就是你的幸运，因为这是一个信号——你需要寻找解决方案以便继续前进。如果你能形成一种条件反射，面对精神痛苦时能够自动地反思痛苦，而不是躲避痛苦，你就能够快速地学习和进化。直面那些由问题、错误和弱点导致的痛苦现实，会大幅提高你的效率，我相信，只要你看到了这种做法的好处，就不会再想以其它方式行事了。你只需要养成这样做的习惯。
大多数人在痛苦时不愿反思，而一旦痛苦消失，他们的注意力就会转移，所以他们难以通过反思得到教益。如果你在痛苦时就能好好反思（这个要求也许太高），这非常好。如果你能够记得在痛苦消失后进行反思，这也很有价值。
你面临的挑战将会考验你，强化你。如果你没有经历过失败，就说明你没有努力突破极限，而如果你不努力突破极限，你就不能最大限度地挖掘自己的潜能。努力突破极限有时失败有时成功，但总能带来益处。虽然这种做法不一定适合所有人，但假如适合你，那将会是一种美妙的体验，令人沉迷。生活不可避免地会带给你这样的考验，而你愿不愿意不断去尝试，取决于你自己。
如果你选择在这条常常很痛苦的个人进化之路上拼搏，你将自然而然地不断“更上一层楼”。当你越过包围你的事物，到达了更高一层的境界，你就会发现，其实那些事物并没有你近看时所以为的那么重要。生活中的大多数东西都不过是“同类情况的重演”。你的层次越高，就能更加有效地应对现实，塑造符合你目标的结果。而曾经看起来无比复杂的东西，也会变得简单。
There is no avoiding pain, especially if you’re going after ambitious goals. Believe it or not, you are lucky to feel that kind of pain if you approach it correctly, because it is a signal that you need to find solutions so you can progress. If you can develop a reflexive reaction to psychical pain that causes you to reflect on it rather than avoid it, it will lead to your rapid learning/evolving. After seeing how much more effective it is to face the painful realities that are caused by your problems, mistakes, and weaknesses, I believe you won’t want to operate any other way. It’s just a matter of getting in the habit of doing it.
Most people have a tough time reflecting when they are in pain and they pay attention to other things when the pain passes, so they miss out on the reflections that provide the lessons. If you can reflect well while you’re in pain (which is probably too much to ask), great. But if you can remember to reflect after it passes, that’s valuable too.
The challenges you face will test and strengthen you. If you’re not failing, you’re not pushing your limits, and if you’re not pushing your limits, you’re not maximizing your potential. Though this process of pushing your limits, of sometimes failing and sometimes breaking through—and deriving benefits from both your failures and your successes—is not for everyone, if it is for you, it can be so thrilling that it becomes addictive. Life will inevitably bring you such moments, and it’ll be up to you to decide whether you want to go back for more.
If you choose to push through this often painful process of personal evolution, you will naturally “ascend” to higher and higher levels. As you climb above the blizzard of things that surrounds you, you will realize that they seem bigger than they really are when you are seeing them up close; that most things in life are just “another one of those.” The higher you ascend, the more effective you become at working with reality to shape outcomes toward your goals. What once seemed impossibly complex becomes simple.

2022-01-06

“竞选者”人格的原则

你们许多人已经进行了PrinciplesYou的人格测试，并认为测试结果是有趣而准确的。在你们收到测试结果之后，我想来分享与每个人格类型相关的原则。今天你会了解关于“竞选者”人格的原则。
如果你的人格是“竞选者”，这些原则或许会帮助你明确你在哪些领域还需要进步以及能充分发挥你的强项的方法。
竞选者专注于围绕想法、立场和解决方案把不同的人召集在一起，并取得实际成果。他们往往雄心勃勃、机敏、善于鼓舞人心、精力充沛且务实，但有时也会太执著。
如果你还没有进行PrinciplesYou人格测试，你可以点击“阅读原文”进行测试。我强烈建议你做这个测试并分享给他人，然后比较你们的测试结果。
Many of you have taken the PrinciplesYou assessment and found the results to be interesting and accurate. To build upon the results you received, I wanted to share some principles relevant to each archetype, which you’ll find here for the Campaigners archetype.
If your archetype was the Campaigners, these principles might help you identify areas for growth as well as ways to maximize your strengths.
Campaigners focus on rallying others around ideas, positions and solutions and achieving practical results. They tend to be ambitious, agile, inspiring, energetic and practical while at times being single-minded.
If you haven’t taken PrinciplesYou yet, you can find it here. I highly encourage you to take it, share it with others, and see how your results compare.

2022-01-05

调和你的目标和欲望，以明确你在生活中真正想要的东西

以激情为例。没有激情的生活枯燥乏味，你不会愿意过，但关键在于如何处理自己的激情。是让激情消耗你，驱使你做出不理性的行为，还是你驾驭激情，从而得到动力来追求你真正的目标？最终让你觉得充实的会是在欲望和目标两个层面都合理的事情。
Take passion, for example. Without passion, life would be dull; you wouldn’t want to live without it. But what’s key is what you do with your passion. Do you let it consume you and drive you to irrational acts, or do you harness it to motivate and drive you while you pursue your real goals? What will ultimately fulfill you are things that feel right at both levels, as both desires and goals.

2022-01-04

2022年新年祝福

我祝愿大家有一个精彩的新年。我最希望大家在这一年里有智慧去品味已经拥有的美好事物、接受还没有的那些想要却力不能及的事物，且仍有热切的渴望和能量去追求最能让你有满足感的事物。
我希望大家今年能继续所得多于所失，但我更希望你能拥有热爱你现有生活的能力。
在失去了我的儿子和其他一些珍贵的东西后，我才真正拥有或者说理解这种想法，因为与此同时我也得到了许多珍贵的东西，比如我的孙子女。
我还懂得了给予和接受爱、以及爱带给施爱者和受爱者的滋养。冥想也帮助我感受和做这些事情。
基于这些原因，如果让我想选择什么祝福你们，除了最常说的健康和财富，我希望你们在新的一年里拥有我上述所说的一切。
- 瑞

I wish you a wonderful New Year. More than anything I wish you a year in which you have the wisdom to savor the amazing things you have while accepting not having those things you want that are beyond your ability to have – and still having the passionate desire and power to pursue the things that will most fulfil you.
While I hope that you will continue to gain more of the things you want than lose them, even more I wish you the ability to love the life you have.
I didn’t fully have or appreciate that perspective until I lost my son and some other treasured things at the same time as I gained many treasured things such as my grandchildren.
I also learned that giving and accepting love, and with it help, is nurturing for the giver and receiver. My meditation helped me feel and do those things.
For those reason, if I were to pick what to wish for you, beyond the most common things like health and wealth, I would wish you a New Year filled with what I described above.
-Ray

2022-01-02

不要让创意择优变成无法无天

在创意择优的环境下，肯定会比一般的机构有更多的分歧，但如果走到极端，无休止的争辩和吹毛求疵都会降低创意择优的功效。在桥水，我遇见过一些人，特别是资历尚浅的年轻人，他们错误地以为他们可以随意与任何人进行任何方面的争论。我甚至还遇到一些人集合起来反对创意择优，宣称他们的反对权来自原则。他们误解了我提出的原则，模糊了机构内部的界限。他们必须遵循该机制的规则，因为这提供了解决分歧的路径，但他们不能威胁这个机制。
In an idea meritocracy, there is bound to be more disagreement than in a typical organization, but when it’s taken to an extreme, arguing and nitpicking can undermine the idea meritocracy’s effectiveness. At Bridgewater, I have encountered some people, especially junior people, who mistakenly think they are entitled to argue about whatever they want and with whomever they please. I have even seen people band together to threaten the idea meritocracy, claiming that their right to do so comes from the principles. They misunderstand my principles and the boundaries within the organization. They must abide by the rules of the system, which provide paths for resolving disagreements, and they mustn’t threaten the system.