FROM：https://untools.co/second-order-thinking

Decision Making

定义

做决定的时候应该考虑决策的长远影响。

用法

长远眼光看问题，看决策。从多个时间点看影响面，这个决定决定后，问自己：

  • 对现在 10 分钟后的影响之后是怎样的？
  • 对 1 个月之后是怎样的？
  • 对 1 年之后是怎样的？
  • 对 5 年之后是怎样的？
  • …

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解释

延展可以赋予其更多维度的定义：

Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.

Second-order thinkers take into account a lot of what we put into our decision journals. Things like:

  • What are the key variables and how do they interact?
  • Where is the leverage?
  • If I take this action, what happens next?

Second-order thinkers, on the other hand, think in terms of interactions, time, and system dynamics.

Think bigger, dive deeper.

给出解决方案的时候，若是一个常人或者常规人都能够轻而易举想到的，那绝对不是「多维」思考之后的结果。和 Steve Jobs 有一番关于初次方案和深入探索后得出的方案有异曲同工之妙。

Weigh second and third-order consequences.

参考